More Choices for Conservatives
 Conventional wisdom says that low-turnout elections are a sign of voter frustration and disgust with the political class. We suspect that when frustration and disgust have their day this November, the last thing the political class will be complaining about is low turnout.
Case in point: Wisconsin’s Government Accountability Board reports that 288 candidates met last week’s filing deadline for state legislative seats and that there’s a sizeable gap between the numbers for Democrats and Republicans.
In the Assembly, 147 Republicans filed for the 99 seats, as opposed to 101 Democrats. In the Senate, where 17 of the 33 seats are at stake, Republicans have 24 candidates, Democrats 16.
These are not precise matchups. One senate district is uncontested. Another will choose between two Republicans. In 15 assembly districts Republicans face no major-party competition; Democrats enjoy the same advantage in ten. What’s notable is that the numbers are more than reversed from 2008, when Democrats recruited 134 assembly candidates to the Republicans’ 99. (In the Senate it was 12 apiece.)
A striking feature is the 14 Democratic incumbents facing multiple Republican challengers. Anyone can talk about pundits boldly predicting big Republican gains; it’s another thing to sign up for months of knocking on doors, living on fast food and being grilled by strangers about one’s beliefs. Left, right or center, nobody does that unless they’re committed to the race. This year it’s the GOP that appears to have what might be called a “commitment advantage.”
National Club Endorses Johnson
 The Wall Street Journal went on record Monday saying Wisconsin could have a key role in determining partisan control of the U.S. Senate next year. Translation: Russ Feingold could be gone.
Pollsters, including some generally interested in advancing the fortunes of Democrats, are finding ample evidence, citing Feingold’s inability to reach 50 percent of respondents favoring his re-election regardless of the theoretical opponent.
Last Wednesday, the national Club for Growth PAC endorsed Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson’s bid to retire Feingold. Club president Chris Chocola called Johnson “part of a rising generation of leaders coming to Washington to take the shackles off our economy and put them on the federal government.”
“Ron Johnson has spent his life creating jobs, being accountable to his customers, and leading by example – that is, he’s the exact opposite of the current federal government,” Chocola said, contrasting Johnson’s career with Feingold’s “vision of a command-and-control economy planned by politicians and bureaucrats in Washington.”
The most persuasive sign that Feingold is in trouble is his own behavior, running away from his incumbency at top speed. Of course this comes naturally, not because Russ Feingold is the maverick he’s always claimed to be, but because he’s always been comfortable telling opposite versions of the same story to different audiences on the same day.
Tax Bite Tipping Point
 Last week we mentioned a new analysis by the Public Policy Forum that found property tax levies across southeast Wisconsin rising, even as residential property values have decreased. This, the Forum explained, was made possible by “a significant increase in the aggregated gross tax rate for all municipalities and school districts in the region” for 2010 compared with 2009.
In other words, when your property is worth less, government’s response is to tax it harder.
This week, Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance (WTA), reported that net property taxes this year are claiming 4.5 percent of all personal income statewide, the biggest bite in 14 years.
As property values have declined, tax rates for 2010 went up in 1,772 of Wisconsin’s 1,850 municipalities, the studies found. School levies led the pack in terms of growth, rising six percent compared with 2009. The levy for technical college districts came in second, growing at 3.9 percent while county and municipal levies ties at 3.2 percent growth. Overall, the increased levies represented five percent growth over 2009.
If there is a silver lining it might be that in the past such developments have been associated with big changes.
Taxpayers Alliance president Todd Berry says his organization has found shifts in the percentage of personal income taken by property taxes to be “an excellent barometer of public sentiment" over the years. "When levies claim around 5% or more of personal income, a major political or policy shift usually occurs,” Berry said.
Cross your fingers. A major political or policy shift is certainly in order. Reversing the effects of recent major political and policy shifts would be a good start.
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